On New Year’s Eve this year I made a bet with a client. The original bet was $1000.00 that within my client’s lifetime, oil would never go below $75.00 a barrel again. We later modified it to ten years so that he might actually be able to enjoy and gloat over winning it. He took the bet almost instantly. We both thought each other crazy. He was sure that natural economic ebbs and flows would bring it back down. My counter was that considering how tight supply was, that it would take a pretty massive economic hit to destroy demand enough to bring it back down from the then-heady 100-plus range. As winter gave way to summer and the price headed north of 150, I felt pretty confident in the bet.
Needless to say, we were both utterly stunned when I had to pay off last month.
It is really hard to get one’s head around the fact that the world has changed rather fundamentally in the last four months. Although I lost the oil bet, I am rather pleased that my bet on Barack Obama placed 21 months ago has paid off. If someone had told me on that evening that I could trade the $1000.00 for an Obama victory in November, I would have headed to the ATM right then and there.
The last week has brought an avalanche of emotions. I find myself a bit lost with my free time. Kind of like this guy:
But I think Andrew Sullivan hits it on the head for me:
It isn’t redemption: I don’t expect that from politics. I realize what I’m feeling is relief.
What I wrote last Monday was not meant casually. Knowing that the Bush-Cheney-Addington axis will be forced out of power is an immense, slackening relief. I’ve felt compelled by politics these past few years in ways I don’t like or enjoy. With men and women finally back in power I can trust to act reasonably and ethically and within the rule of law, I feel less hesitation in getting on with life.
