Oh joy! I haven’t had much to say about peak oil in some time what with the economy falling off a cliff and taking energy demand with it. But it’s been there, lurking in the wings, waiting to have its say in any economic takeoff. So, today the well-respected Chief Economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA), Dr. Fatih Birol, is quoted in the London Independent as saying that most of the largest producing oil fields have or are near peak production. This is suprising in that the IEA has heretofore maintained a very skeptical official line with regards to peak oil theory. One wonders then whether this is Dr. Birol going off the reservation to speak his mind, or a change in stance by the IEA.
But the first detailed assessment of more than 800 oil fields in the world, covering three quarters of global reserves, has found that most of the biggest fields have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago. On top of this, there is a problem of chronic under-investment by oil-producing countries, a feature that is set to result in an “oil crunch” within the next five years which will jeopardise any hope of a recovery from the present global economic recession, he said.
Naturally, Oil prices jumped about two and-a-half bucks in response. Because it has been a while. Here is the last years’ oil futures prices based on the daily close at the New York Commodities Exchange (NYMEX).
