Tomorrow is the 22nd of Bahman. In Iran this is the national day of celebration of the victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Traditionally a day off for organized government demonstrations. This year will be different.
Both the pro-freedom Green Movement and the pro-government forces are revving up for a huge confrontation tomorrow. Scott Lucas at Enduring America thinks this could be a tipping point:
What is important, in the meantime, is that there is a significant difference on the eve of this event compared to the political environment before Ashura (27 December). On that occasion, the only prominent opposition figure who made a move was former President Mohammad Khatami, and his memorial speech for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri was rudely broken up by pro-Government protesters. Mousavi, Karroubi, and other senior clerics were all muted about the demonstrations to come. And, after those protests, “conservative” figures such as Ali Larijani were unstinting in their criticism of the “violent” and “foreign-backed” Green movement.
Now all these figures are in play. Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami have put down their political markers for a big opposition show on Thursday and promised more to come. Rafsanjani, for the first time since early December, may have made his manoeuvre to challenge the Government. And Larijani, joined by others within the establishment, is now targeting Ahmadinejad as much as any Green protester.
This political change should not overshadow the importance of the demonstrations on the ground tomorrow. The demands “from below” for legitimacy, justice, and freedom are just as necessary as any high-profile statement or even “ultimatum”.
To follow events tomorrow (probably starting about 7 or 8 p.m. on Wednesday Central Time), the L.A. Times has an excellent blog, Bablylon and Beyond. The National Iranian-American Council blog and Andrew Sullivan will no doubt be aggregating news.
Regardless, do spare a thought for the thousands of brave men and women of all ages who will be risking their lives tomorrow and beyond.
